We live in a VUCA world. This phrase often describes our current world’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous nature. With a new US President at the helm of one of the world’s most powerful countries, global food security faces significant challenges due to policy shifts affecting trade, community feeding programs, international aid, agriculture, and environmental regulations.

Early in March this year, the US Agriculture Department announced that it would halt $1 billion in federal funding, which was earmarked for programs that gave schools and food banks money to buy food from local farms. At the same time, food costs have continued to rise over the last 3 years, with some 13.5% of American Households (18 million) classified as food insecure in 2023, a significant rise from 2022 (12.8%). In 2023 alone, according to Feeding America, more than 50 million people turned to food banks, food pantries, and community organisations for food assistance. The reliance on these food banks has, in turn, led to a rise in obesity and diabetes, with food banks often offering foods which are heavily processed and low in fibre, leading to further health impacts.

Climate-induced heavy rainfall and flooding have already impacted farmers across the Midwest, resulting in significant crop losses. These same farmers are being hit by a double whammy of Trump’s recent tariff announcements, including the 125% tax on food commodities such as soybeans, wheat, and corn destined for China. For the last 30 years, US and many European farmers have been heavily incentivised through the Farm Bill and the Common Agricultural Policy to grow vast quantities of these crops for export. According to the USDA, the U.S. imports nearly 60% of fresh fruit and 35% of fresh vegetables, and the recent imposition of a 10% flat tariff on imports, with some goods facing tariffs up to 54%, will ultimately burden American consumers, making healthy eating less affordable for many low-income households.

Farm labour shortages will likely be another important factor affecting food prices over the next few years. Given that undocumented farmworkers comprise approximately 42% to 50% of the US agricultural industry, stricter immigration enforcement policies have the potential to impact food production and drive up food prices.

The stakes are high for many US citizens already struggling with food inflation. Food insecurity will remain elevated without significant policy interventions or economic improvements. The continued strain on food assistance programs and rising food costs due to elevated tariffs and labour constraints suggest that vulnerable populations will face ongoing challenges in accessing healthy and nutritious foods at affordable prices.

So, what about the impacts of Donald Trump’s policies on the rest of the world? The adage “When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold” is especially true in the context of global food systems. The US remains a critical actor in global food value chains, both as a major exporter of staple commodities and a leading funder of international food aid. As a result, domestic policy shifts in the United States reverberate well beyond its borders, affecting food prices, supply availability, and humanitarian assistance to the rest of the world.

One example is the Trump administration’s move to terminate funding to the World Food Programme (WFP) and abolish the USAID program altogether. The abrupt withdrawal of USAID, worth an estimated $40 billion, for example, has strained global efforts to provide food assistance to low—and middle-income countries, including those regions facing climate-induced food insecurity. The WFP, which relies heavily on U.S. contributions, warned on X that ‘ this could amount to a death sentence for millions of people facing extreme hunger and starvation’ unless other donor countries fill the funding gap. Only time will tell what the actual impact on global food security will be of the effects of these overseas aid cuts.

In addition to aid cuts, there will inevitably be compounded impacts. As a result of tariffs on agricultural imports and exports, countries that rely on affordable U.S. grain and soy exports are now facing inflated costs, which cascade through their local economies, pushing food prices higher and increasing the risk of political and social unrest. For example, nations in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, which are highly dependent on food imports, will likely experience volatility in their domestic market over the coming year.

In the UK, the introduction of 10% tariffs on all goods exported to the US has intensified discussions around a potential UK-US trade deal. While the UK government has committed to maintaining existing food safety, environmental, and animal welfare standards, there remain some significant concerns about the implications of such a trade agreement. Many farmers and NGOS remain concerned that the unpalatable demands to allow the import of chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef could be a pill the UK would need to swallow as part of any deal.

The rollback of US environmental regulations poses further risks to global food security. Weakened protections for biodiversity, climate, waterways, pesticide use, and soil conservation threaten the long-term sustainability of agricultural production. In a world that will inevitably face additional shocks in the form of environmental crises (climate change and biodiversity loss), we need policies oriented towards localising and democratising our food systems, building on traditional and ecological knowledge that supports long-term resilience.

Amidst these challenges, there are also opportunities. Rising food prices and trade tensions could prompt renewed investments in local food systems, agrobiodiversity, nutritious foods, and sustainable farming practices. These shifts may foster a more diversified and resilient domestic food economy in the long run. Governments could use this to commit to taking measures that build longer-term resilience to future global shocks.

Internationally, the vacuum created by the U.S. isolating itself from the rest of the world may open the door for other countries to step up and assume leadership roles and reform the whole business of humanitarian food aid. Whilst immediate food aid will remain important at times of crisis, there could be more of an opportunity to address the systemic root causes of food poverty and food insecurity. Longer-term structural changes to current external financing are required to reduce the over-reliance on humanitarian assistance and to help tackle the root causes of malnutrition and hunger.

As I write this piece, the impacts of Trump’s rapidly changing policies are still unfolding, and it is too early to assess their impact on global food security. What is certain is that we live in VUCA times, and we must double our efforts to work together to deliver fair, equitable, sustainable, healthy, and resilient food systems for all.

This article is also published in New Food Magazine here.